{"title":"AGI-to-Abundance Bottleneck Map","description":"A dependency map showing why more capable intelligence is only the first link between AI progress and reliable universal access.","version":"1.0.0","published":"2026-07-26","updated":"2026-07-26","governingDistinction":"Productive capacity ≠ delivered affordability ≠ universal access.","nodes":[{"id":"intelligence","stage":1,"title":"Intelligence","question":"Can systems reason, learn, plan, use tools, and complete broad tasks reliably?","failureMode":"Capability remains narrow, brittle, expensive, or difficult to evaluate.","evidenceClass":"Measured finding","sourceIds":["deepmind-levels","metr-time-horizons","arc-methodology"]},{"id":"discovery","stage":2,"title":"Discovery and design","question":"Can capability produce validated science, engineering designs, and operating plans?","failureMode":"Generated ideas outrun experiments, verification, or organizational adoption.","evidenceClass":"Scenario","sourceIds":["openai-benefit-plan","deepmind-agi-to-asi"]},{"id":"physical-execution","stage":3,"title":"Physical execution","question":"Can robots, factories, builders, farms, and care systems execute designs at scale?","failureMode":"Software progress does not translate into safe, maintainable physical throughput.","evidenceClass":"Inference","sourceIds":["deepmind-agi-to-asi"]},{"id":"inputs","stage":4,"title":"Energy and materials","question":"Are power, land, water, minerals, chips, and industrial inputs sufficient and sustainable?","failureMode":"Finite inputs, environmental limits, permitting, or concentrated supply create new scarcity.","evidenceClass":"Inference","sourceIds":["deepmind-agi-to-asi"]},{"id":"logistics","stage":5,"title":"Logistics and maintenance","question":"Can goods and services reach people with low delay, waste, and failure rates?","failureMode":"Storage, transport, interoperability, repair, or local capacity blocks delivery.","evidenceClass":"Inference","sourceIds":["openai-benefit-plan"]},{"id":"institutions","stage":6,"title":"Institutions","question":"Can law, markets, public systems, standards, and state capacity adapt safely?","failureMode":"Governance lags, rights are unclear, or coordination fails under competitive pressure.","evidenceClass":"Scenario","sourceIds":["openai-benefit-plan","openai-charter","anthropic-economic-framework"]},{"id":"ownership","stage":7,"title":"Ownership and power","question":"Who owns compute, robots, infrastructure, data rights, and claims on output?","failureMode":"Capability and returns concentrate even as total output rises.","evidenceClass":"Scenario","sourceIds":["openai-charter","anthropic-economic-framework"]},{"id":"distribution","stage":8,"title":"Distribution","question":"Which combination of prices, income, services, assets, dividends, and rights transmits gains?","failureMode":"Nominal support fails against fixed supply, inflation, exclusion, or political fragility.","evidenceClass":"Opinion or proposal","sourceIds":["anthropic-economic-framework","iftf-universal-basic-assets"]},{"id":"universal-access","stage":9,"title":"Universal access","question":"Does everyone receive the specified floor with affordability, quality, agency, reliability, and resilience?","failureMode":"Averages improve while specific people or places remain excluded.","evidenceClass":"Opinion or proposal","sourceIds":["openai-benefit-plan","anthropic-economic-framework"]}],"edges":[{"from":"intelligence","to":"discovery","relationship":"Capability must become validated knowledge and designs."},{"from":"discovery","to":"physical-execution","relationship":"Designs must be executed safely at real-world scale."},{"from":"physical-execution","to":"inputs","relationship":"Execution consumes physical inputs and infrastructure."},{"from":"inputs","to":"logistics","relationship":"Output must be stored, moved, operated, and maintained."},{"from":"logistics","to":"institutions","relationship":"Delivery operates inside legal, market, and public systems."},{"from":"institutions","to":"ownership","relationship":"Rules define control and claims on productive systems."},{"from":"ownership","to":"distribution","relationship":"Ownership shapes how gains can be transmitted."},{"from":"distribution","to":"universal-access","relationship":"Mechanisms must produce an observable access floor."}],"sources":[{"id":"deepmind-levels","publisher":"Google DeepMind","title":"Levels of AGI for Operationalizing Progress on the Path to AGI","url":"https://deepmind.google/research/publications/66938/","published":"2024-07-21","accessed":"2026-07-26","tier":2,"evidenceClass":"Measured finding"},{"id":"deepmind-agi-to-asi","publisher":"Google DeepMind","title":"From AGI to ASI","url":"https://deepmind.google/research/publications/239142/","published":"2026-06-12","accessed":"2026-07-26","tier":2,"evidenceClass":"Scenario"},{"id":"metr-time-horizons","publisher":"METR","title":"Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models","url":"https://metr.org/time-horizons/","published":"2026-02-06","accessed":"2026-07-26","tier":3,"evidenceClass":"Measured finding"},{"id":"arc-methodology","publisher":"ARC Prize","title":"ARC-AGI-3 Scoring Methodology","url":"https://docs.arcprize.org/methodology","published":null,"accessed":"2026-07-26","tier":3,"evidenceClass":"Measured finding"},{"id":"openai-benefit-plan","publisher":"OpenAI","title":"Built to benefit everyone: our plan","url":"https://openai.com/index/built-to-benefit-everyone-our-plan/","published":"2026-06-08","accessed":"2026-07-26","tier":1,"evidenceClass":"Attributed definition"},{"id":"openai-charter","publisher":"OpenAI","title":"OpenAI Charter","url":"https://openai.com/charter/","published":null,"accessed":"2026-07-26","tier":1,"evidenceClass":"Attributed definition"},{"id":"anthropic-economic-framework","publisher":"Anthropic","title":"Policy on the AI Exponential: Economic Policy Framework","url":"https://www.anthropic.com/policy-on-the-ai-exponential/epf","published":null,"accessed":"2026-07-26","tier":1,"evidenceClass":"Scenario"},{"id":"iftf-universal-basic-assets","publisher":"Institute for the Future","title":"Universal Basic Assets","url":"https://legacy.iftf.org/uba/","published":null,"accessed":"2026-07-26","tier":3,"evidenceClass":"Attributed definition"}]}