AGI-to-Abundance Bottleneck Map

Read the nine stages

Each stage exposes one transmission question and one failure mode. The labels distinguish observed measurement, attributed statements, inference, scenario, and proposal.

1. 01Measured finding

   Intelligence

   Can systems reason, learn, plan, use tools, and complete broad tasks reliably?

   Failure mode: Capability remains narrow, brittle, expensive, or difficult to evaluate.

   Sources:Google DeepMindMETRARC Prize

2. 02Scenario

   Discovery and design

   Can capability produce validated science, engineering designs, and operating plans?

   Failure mode: Generated ideas outrun experiments, verification, or organizational adoption.

   Sources:OpenAIGoogle DeepMind

3. 03Inference

   Physical execution

   Can robots, factories, builders, farms, and care systems execute designs at scale?

   Failure mode: Software progress does not translate into safe, maintainable physical throughput.

   Sources:Google DeepMind

4. 04Inference

   Energy and materials

   Are power, land, water, minerals, chips, and industrial inputs sufficient and sustainable?

   Failure mode: Finite inputs, environmental limits, permitting, or concentrated supply create new scarcity.

   Sources:Google DeepMind

5. 05Inference

   Logistics and maintenance

   Can goods and services reach people with low delay, waste, and failure rates?

   Failure mode: Storage, transport, interoperability, repair, or local capacity blocks delivery.

   Sources:OpenAI

6. 06Scenario

   Institutions

   Can law, markets, public systems, standards, and state capacity adapt safely?

   Failure mode: Governance lags, rights are unclear, or coordination fails under competitive pressure.

   Sources:OpenAIOpenAIAnthropic

7. 07Scenario

   Ownership and power

   Who owns compute, robots, infrastructure, data rights, and claims on output?

   Failure mode: Capability and returns concentrate even as total output rises.

   Sources:OpenAIAnthropic

8. 08Opinion or proposal

   Distribution

   Which combination of prices, income, services, assets, dividends, and rights transmits gains?

   Failure mode: Nominal support fails against fixed supply, inflation, exclusion, or political fragility.

   Sources:AnthropicInstitute for the Future

9. 09Opinion or proposal

   Universal access

   Does everyone receive the specified floor with affordability, quality, agency, reliability, and resilience?

   Failure mode: Averages improve while specific people or places remain excluded.

   Sources:OpenAIAnthropic